Suited vs offsuit: exactly how much does the suit matter?
Preflop Edge guide · computed from the 169-hand simulation data (all-in win-rates vs random opponents)
In short: we compared every one of the 78 suited classes in our data with its exact offsuit twin — A-K suited vs A-K offsuit, 7-2 suited vs 7-2 offsuit, all 78 pairs — at every crowd size from one opponent to eight. Heads-up, the suited version is worth an average of 2.7 points of win-rate more; against five random opponents the average tax grows to 4.0. The biggest single gap heads-up is 32s at 3.7 points; the smallest belongs to AKs at 1.7. Suit value is real, it is never trivial, and it grows as the table fills.
Why a flush draw is worth more than a flush
The naive story: "suited is worth about two or three points." Half true, and incomplete. A suited hand's edge doesn't come from having a flush — that's rare at showdown. It comes from options: second-pair-with-draws on many flops, backup plans (two pair, straights, backdoor flushes) when the flush never lands, and in crowd situations the chance to crack exactly the kind of overpair that would otherwise be crushing you. What these tables measure is that options-gap, versus random opponents.The average tax, by crowd size
- Heads-up (vs 1): average gap 2.7 points, from 1.7 (AKs) to 3.7 (32s). At this crowd size suitedness mostly functions as a tiebreaker against hands that would otherwise dominate your high cards.
- Five-handed (vs 5): average gap 4.0 points, from 2.3 (96s) to 5.2 (J4s). More live opponents means more made-hand competition, and the flush draw becomes the main way ragged hands climb over a pair-and-top-kicker hand.
Notice the direction of travel: the gap widens with crowd size. That feels backwards until you remember what "random opponents" means — with four strangers calling, you're usually racing real two-pair and top-hand value, and the only reliable route for a ragged suited hand to outrun that value is its suit. The suited versions of 5-4 and 9-8 don't become "strong" in a crowd; their offsuit twins just sink faster.
Biggest gaps, heads-up (vs 1 random opponent)
| Suited | Offsuit twin | WR (suited) vs 1 | WR (offsuit) vs 1 | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32s | 32o | 36.0% | 32.3% | +3.7 |
| 72s | 72o | 38.2% | 34.6% | +3.6 |
| 62s | 62o | 37.7% | 34.1% | +3.6 |
| 42s | 42o | 36.8% | 33.2% | +3.6 |
| 82s | 82o | 40.3% | 36.8% | +3.5 |
| 52s | 52o | 37.8% | 34.3% | +3.5 |
| 43s | 43o | 38.6% | 35.1% | +3.5 |
| 53s | 53o | 39.7% | 36.3% | +3.4 |
| 83s | 83o | 40.9% | 37.5% | +3.4 |
| 73s | 73o | 40.0% | 36.6% | +3.4 |
Biggest gaps, five-handed (vs 5 random opponents)
| Suited | Offsuit twin | WR (suited) vs 5 | WR (offsuit) vs 5 | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J4s | J4o | 16.1% | 10.9% | +5.2 |
| A4s | A4o | 20.3% | 15.2% | +5.1 |
| Q2s | Q2o | 15.9% | 10.8% | +5.1 |
| K2s | K2o | 17.3% | 12.3% | +5.0 |
| T7s | T7o | 18.4% | 13.4% | +5.0 |
| 62s | 62o | 12.7% | 7.8% | +4.9 |
| J6s | J6o | 16.3% | 11.5% | +4.8 |
| A9s | A9o | 22.6% | 17.9% | +4.7 |
| J5s | J5o | 15.4% | 10.7% | +4.7 |
| K6s | K6o | 18.9% | 14.2% | +4.7 |
The pattern to internalize: at the top of the chart the tax is smallest (A-K suited gives up only 1.7 points to A-K offsuit vs one opponent — both are monster hands), while at the bottom, hands already below water level pay the biggest suited tax (32s tops the list). In other words, suitedness doesn't rescue bad hands — it just makes bad-suited hands slightly less doomed than bad-offsuit hands.
Where the tax actually bites in real decisions
- Same-rank dilemmas (K-Q suited vs A-Q offsuit, A-J suited vs K-Q suited...). Chart rank already encodes this, but the rule of thumb: suitedness shifts rank-neighborhoods by a few points of win-rate, not categories. A-K offsuit remains the stronger race hand; you're choosing between "dominated-value" and "draw-value," and the crowd-size columns decide more often than the suit.
- Defending the big blind. "It's suited, I'll call" is the most expensive three-word sentence in low-stakes poker when the hand is something like Q-6 suited (53.6% vs one, 17.1% vs five). Suit value is a kicker to the real question — "does this hand make monsters that get paid?"
- Short Deck players. In Short Deck poker the flush beats a full house precisely because with a 36-card deck there are too few flushes dealt — suit scarcity is priced in at the rules level. When you switch games, see the Short Deck rankings guide.
The two tables that prove it
A-K suited (67.0% vs 1, 30.8% vs 5) and A-K offsuit (65.3%, 26.7%) — see the A-K suited page and the A-K offsuit page. J-T suited (chart rank 45) vs J-T offsuit (rank 58). And the celebrity comparison, 7-2 suited (38.2% vs one) vs 7-2 offsuit (34.6%): a full 0.0-point spread for the worst non-pair classes in the game, which is most of what makes the two of them merely terrible together.