Hold'em vs Short Deck: the 20 hands whose equity moves the most
Short Deck (Six+ Hold'em) plays with a 36-card deck — the deuces through fives are removed, and flushes beat full houses. Your Hold'em intuitions travel badly across that border. Every number below is win-rate at showdown vs one random opponent, from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per cell (both decks, same simulation settings).
The one-line version: every one of the twenty hands below loses equity in Short Deck — pocket sixes is the worst offender, down 24.2 points, and even pocket aces drops 10.6 points against a single random opponent. That compression is the real lesson: in Short Deck almost nothing dominates, so margin-thin spots multiply.
The 20 biggest equity moves (vs 1 random opponent)
Both columns are win % vs one random hand in each game, rounded to one decimal. "Delta" is the Short Deck number minus the Hold'em number. Where the Short Deck class differs from the Hold'em notation (A2s→A6s, 54s→65s), the hand belongs to the Short Deck family named in the last column — inside a family the numbers move together.
| Hand (Hold'em) | Short Deck class | Hold'em win % | Short Deck win % | Delta (pp) | What your instinct says |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 66 | 63.6 | 39.4 | -24.2 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 24.2 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. |
| 77 | 77 | 65.7 | 43.8 | -21.9 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 21.9 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. |
| 88 | 88 | 68.7 | 50.8 | -17.9 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 17.9 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. |
| 99 | 99 | 71.8 | 56.6 | -15.2 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 15.2 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. |
| A6s | A6s | 61.2 | 48.5 | -12.7 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 12.7 points on this one — trust the Short Deck number, not the Hold'em one. |
| TT | TT | 75.1 | 63.1 | -12.0 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 12.0 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. |
| KK | KK | 82.4 | 70.6 | -11.8 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 11.8 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. |
| 79.8 | 68.3 | -11.5 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 11.5 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. | ||
| A6o | A6o | 57.4 | 46.1 | -11.3 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 11.3 points on this one — trust the Short Deck number, not the Hold'em one. |
| JJ | JJ | 76.8 | 65.6 | -11.2 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 11.2 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. |
| A4o | A6o | 56.9 | 46.1 | -10.8 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.8 points on this one — the A6o family family is not one hand in Short Deck, and it all sinks together. |
| K6s | K6s | 57.2 | 46.4 | -10.8 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.8 points on this one — trust the Short Deck number, not the Hold'em one. |
| A7s | A7s | 61.0 | 50.2 | -10.8 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.8 points on this one — trust the Short Deck number, not the Hold'em one. |
| A4s | A6s | 59.2 | 48.5 | -10.7 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.7 points on this one — the A6s family family is not one hand in Short Deck, and it all sinks together. |
| AA | AA | 84.9 | 74.3 | -10.6 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.6 points on this one — this pair is a completely different animal in the 36-card deck. |
| A2s | A6s | 58.9 | 48.5 | -10.4 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.4 points on this one — the A6s family family is not one hand in Short Deck, and it all sinks together. |
| 76s | 76s | 45.2 | 34.8 | -10.4 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.4 points on this one — trust the Short Deck number, not the Hold'em one. |
| K6o | K6o | 54.7 | 44.4 | -10.3 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.3 points on this one — trust the Short Deck number, not the Hold'em one. |
| A3s | A6s | 58.5 | 48.5 | -10.0 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.0 points on this one — the A6s family family is not one hand in Short Deck, and it all sinks together. |
| A7o | A7o | 59.1 | 49.1 | -10.0 | Your Hold'em instinct is off by 10.0 points on this one — trust the Short Deck number, not the Hold'em one. |
Why pairs collapse hardest: removing the deuces through fives does two expensive things to a pair. It removes twelve small cards that used to counterpile against you, and it makes every straight draw longer and every flush possible — so a pair's raw "I'm ahead now" equity is exactly what evaporates. Suited broadway and family hands lose less for the same reason in reverse: their equity always came from the straight/flush machinery the 36-card deck makes more common.
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